As I become more involved with Green Party politics, I want to share a series of posts on how I think Green Party candidates can mount strong political campaigns.
This series will be based on my love of politics, my 33 years of following politics, my appreciation of data, and my desire to see a more equitable, inclusive America.
If you would like me to discuss a particular race and/or political district, contact me.
District Demographics
Points About the Data
- The data presented here comes from a website that allows you to get demographic information for any congressional district.
- The information is based on data from the 2019 American Community Survey (ACS) and estimates of data published by the Census Bureau.
- As with all data published by ACS, the data presented here is not considered the most statistically valid data.
- Still, it is regularly used and readily available.
- While it may not be the most accurate, It’s accurate enough to paint a picture and to make effective comparisons.
- As with every governmental program, Census data does not accurately represent POCs, people with disabilities, people living in poverty, and more.
- I’m presenting this data, because it tells an important story and it is relied on by all kinds of governmental institutions.
- Since the data is estimated, the numbers will not always perfectly add to a hundred percent.
Racial Composition of Connecticut’s Third Congressional District
- Estimated population, 717,989
- Estimated white population, 513,602
- The district is about 71% white.
- Estimated black population, 111,063
- The district is nearly 16% black.
- Estimated Puerto Rican population, 67,580
Socio Economic Data for Connecticut’s Third Congressional District
- Estimated median income, $70,574
- Estimated mean income, $95,139
- Estimated civilian noninstitutionalized population with health insurance, 672,642
- Estimated civilian noninstitutionalized population without health insurance, 38,948
- Estimated percentage of the district without insurance, 5.5%
- Estimated population with private health insurance, 481,026
- Estimated percentage of people experiencing poverty, 10.8%
Estimated percentage of families experiencing poverty, 7.4%
Notes on Socio Economic Data
- The Median income is the income level where half the people earn more than that number and half the people earn less. In this district, half of the households had an income of at least $70,574
- In 2019, the median income in the United States was $68,703.
- The mean income is calculated by dividing the amount of total household income by the number of households.
- In 2019, the poverty rate for the nation was 10.5%, roughly the same as in this district.
The Candidates
Rosa DeLauro
- Rosa Delauro, a Democrat, has represented this district since 1990.
- In every election since 1992, she has received at least 58% of the vote.
- In 2018, she introduced Medicare for America, which left in place private health insurance.
Justin Paglino
Justin Paglinoran against Delauro representing the Green Party in 2020. My understanding is Justin is thinking about another run.
- Justin is n MD, PHD transitioning from a career as a scientist to the world of political activism.
- He supports Medicare for All, a fair economy, clean energy, ending the duopoly, and more.
How I Would Run
Beating DeLauro will be difficult. She has won every election for the seat by a wide margin. She is part of team Pelosi. There will be plenty of corporate money at the ready.
The other issue here is that DeLauro represents what her voters want. I raised Medicare for America above, because it protects private insurance. In a district where 95% of people are insured and most of those have private insurance, traditional arguments around Medicare for All aren’t going to sell.
Here, Medicare for All will be very susceptible to the fear mongering Democrats love to use about people losing their private insurance. To rebut this argument, Paglino will need to demonstrate why people with private insurance benefit from Medicare for All.
This blog post from Justin on people dying because they lack coverage is heartbreaking and powerful, but it doesn’t speak to the people of the district. Very few of them are worried about dying from a lack of coverage.
In talking about Medicare for All, Justin should emphasize things that would be an issue for people with private insurance. Insurance being tied to employment, the cost of COBRA if unemployed, insurance company control over medical care, and more.
Another thing I would suggest Justin focus on is speaking to the number of people, especially single mothers, experiencing poverty. While this group is small in the district, it’s a way of focusing on how Delauro’s policies and her unwavering support for neoliberal policies has led to real suffering on the part of single women and their children.
Of course, the tone of these types of discussions matters, but the truth is this district, while difficult to win, is not out of reach. There are plenty of people not benefiting from Democratic loyalty to the corporate masters.
Final Thoughts
Obviously, I can’t touch on everything here. But I do think Justin is a good candidate for his district. As an older white man who had private insurance and steady income for at least most of his life, Justin can easily relate to a strong majority of the voters in the district. If he can convince them why he does and why they should support policies like Medicare for All, there is a chance. If he can also convince those in the district being left behind that his policies will improve their situations, there are more votes to be had. And, of course, there is the change argument. Convincing people they need a fresh voice after decades is often difficult. When the change movement gains speed though, it can turn elections.