Introduction
Even though this will be the first election in which I will not be casting a vote since I became eligible to vote in 1992, I am very much interested in what will happen. Yes, I will be watching and reading about the election early into Wednesday morning. So, I thought I would put together a post with some thoughts about the election. I will close with a prediction.
Key States
The following five states are very likely to decide the election:
- Georgia
- North Carolina
- Pennsylvania
- Michigan
- Wisconsin
The former battleground states of Florida and Ohio are solidly Republican and will easily be won by Trump. Harris is competing hard in Arizona and Nevada, but I don’t think she will win either won. Of the two, Nevada seems like her best shot.
Things to Know About the Five Critical States
- Polls close in Georgia at 7:00. We will start getting a sense of how things are going in these critical states very early.
- Polls close in North Carolina at 7:30. Early returns from North Carolina will start letting us know if Harris is going to perform more like Biden or Clinton.
- Polls close in Pennsylvania at 8:00. Pennsylvania is the most important state of them all this time. Which ever candidate wins Pennsylvania will have a great chance to win.
- Polls close in most of Michigan at 8:00. Early returns from Michigan will start telling us if the so-called blue wall of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin will hold for Democrats.
- Polls close in Wisconsin at 9:00. By then, we will have batches of votes counted from the other four critical states and things will slowly start becoming clearer.
- As of now, polling from all five states is within the margin of error.
- Trump or Harris could win all five of these critical states.
- I predict Trump wins Georgia and North Carolina.
- I predict Harris wins Michigan.
- If I’m right, the election will be decided by Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Thoughts on the Demographics
People who have been following politics for decades, like me, pay close attention to the profiles of typical voters that support the individual candidates. Without getting too technical, I want to share a few thoughts about how I believe different groups will vote:
- We will see the widest gender gap since exit polls began. This means Harris will do way better among women and Trump will do way better among men.
- More black and LatinX voters will vote for Trump than did in either 2016 or 2020.
- Harris will do better with white women than Clinton did in 2016.
- Trump will win a higher percentage of white male voters than he did in 2016 or 2020.
Quick Thoughts on the Popular Vote
As I’m guessing most people know, the popular vote (which candidate actually got more votes) does not matter in the election of a president. As is becoming far too typical, the Democrat will win the popular vote and lose the election. I predict Harris will win the popular vote by four million. In comparison, Biden won the popular vote by roughly 7.1 million in 2020. Clinton won the popular vote by roughly 2.9 million votes in 2016. Even though the popular vote does not directly affect the election of a president, it is a key indicator of who will win the presidential election. Since Trump is guaranteed to lose the popular vote, he needs his loss to look more like it did in 2016 than it did in 2020. If Harris wins the popular vote by at least five million, she is likely to win the election.
My Prediction
As I have been saying for months–I can’t imagine Trump losing to a black woman in America. Trump will win Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Both states are older and whiter than is the country as a whole. The demographics in both states simply work for Trump.
One Important Final Thought
No matter what happens on Tuesday, the 2028 election will be the first in 16 years that will not have Trump on the ballot.